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With idle funds returning to the stock market, U.S. stocks have a more than 60% chance of closing higher in January
In early 2026, investors were pleased with the current state of the stock market. On Tuesday, driven by broad gains in the healthcare sector and small-cap tech stocks, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hit record highs; after rising for three consecutive trading days, the former posted its best start to a year since 2003. “That idle capital is likely finding its way back into the market,” said Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments. Historically, January has been a relatively favorable month for the stock market, as investors rush to position themselves in anticipation of the year ahead. According to Dow Jones Market Data, since 1928, the probability of the stock market ending January in positive territory has exceeded 60%. Tuesday was another significant day for stocks tied to AI infrastructure development. SanDisk was the top performer among S&P 500 components, surging 28%, while hard drive manufacturers Seagate Technology and Western Digital also ranked among the top five.
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