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The U.S. Treasury yield curve continues to steepen, with stagflation fears driving up long-term rates
The trend toward a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve—that is, the widening spread between short-term and long-term Treasury yields—continues. Although there have been occasional interruptions in recent months, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has generally steepened. Analysts at First Abu Dhabi Bank noted in a report that, amid concerns over stagflation risks, short-term Treasury yields have remained firm, while long-term yields have fluctuated higher. They noted that since the deep inversion in mid-2023, the spread between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields has steepened by approximately 170 basis points. According to Tradeweb data, the spread between two-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields currently stands at 70 basis points, having briefly touched a high of 71 basis points earlier this month.
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