Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability of the Polymarket contract "Trump Announces End of Military Action Against Iran by April 21" has sharply dropped to 21%, a 24-hour decrease of 22%. As of now, the total trading volume for the "When Will Trump Announce the End of Military Action Against Iran" event contract has approached $17 million.
The rules for this event contract are as follows: If President Trump, the U.S. government, or the military publicly and formally announces that the military action against Iran initiated on February 28, 2026, has ended by the specified date (Eastern Time), the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Eligible statements must explicitly state that the operation has concluded. Informal statements, statements from anonymous sources, or leaked information do not qualify. Trump's public written statements (e.g., posts on his personal "Truth Social" account) will be considered valid declarations, as will videos posted on his social media accounts. The primary basis for market resolution will be official statements from the U.S. government and/or its official representatives, but consensus from other credible reports will also be considered.
On the first day the U.S.-Iran temporary ceasefire took effect, the Israeli military launched its largest airstrikes against Hezbollah since the conflict began. Iran stated that this violated the ceasefire agreement, closed the Strait of Hormuz again, and threatened to prepare deterrent actions against Israeli military targets. The White House has announced that the first round of U.S.-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th. However, Iran stated that three key clauses out of its 10 ceasefire terms have been violated, undermining the "basis for negotiations." Nevertheless, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Seyed Khatibzadeh recently stated that the Iranian delegation will travel to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, to participate in the talks.
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.