Svmuu Seer Channel monitoring shows that the whale with address 0xa7d1...b824 has accumulated purchases of $527,000 worth of "Iranian regime will collapse by June 30th", currently at a loss of $345,000. Previously, this whale purchased $176,000 worth of "US military invades Iran by March 31st" and $148,000 worth of "Iranian regime collapses by March 31st", both of which failed to materialize.
According to the market's resolution rules, the "Yes" condition for this event is extremely stringent: it requires the current ruling system of the Islamic Republic of Iran (such as the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards led by the clergy) to be dissolved, paralyzed, or replaced by a completely different governance system before June 30, 2026. The determination must be based on a consensus from recognized authoritative media, confirming that the regime has lost actual control over the majority of the population. The rules explicitly state: routine political elections, internal reforms, or power transitions do not meet the resolution criteria. Even if an internal coup occurs, as long as the core structure of the Islamic Republic is preserved, the market will settle as "No". Furthermore, the loss of partial territory or challenges from anti-government forces, unless they result in the regime's inability to govern the majority of the national population, also do not constitute a "collapse".
Svmuu Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.