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Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Rebounds After Holding Above $60,000; Market Structure Shows Selling Pressure Has Eased, but Buying Pressure Remains Unconfirmed
Svmuu News: The Bitfinex Alpha report notes that as tensions in the Middle East ease and expectations for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire grow, Bitcoin (BTC) held its $59,200 support level after multiple tests and rebounded 3.54% this week, closing at $65,655. The report suggests that this rally stems more from the exhaustion of selling pressure than from new demand. Previously, open interest in futures contracts had fallen significantly from May’s highs, with short-term holders selling at a loss, and exchange balances dropping to a seven-year low—indicating that the market has entered a phase of deleveraging and the release of selling pressure. However, on-chain and capital flow data indicate that demand remains weak: ETF capital flows remain negative, corporate treasury buying has slowed, and short-term holders are still generally sitting on floating losses of approximately 17%–19%, suggesting that potential upside selling pressure remains significant. Bitfinex notes that Bitcoin is currently trapped between two key levels: cyclical price support around $54,000 on the downside, and short-term holders’ profit-taking pressure near $68,000 on the upside, creating a market structure where “selling pressure has paused but buying interest remains unconfirmed.” On the macro front, U.S. inflation rose to 4.2% in May, driven primarily by rising energy prices due to the Middle East conflict, while economic growth slowed to 1.6%, sparking concerns about “stagflation.”However, the market has found some relief due to a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and alleviates the energy supply shock, it could reduce inflation and real interest rate pressures, providing support for risk assets. The report also notes that institutionalization trends continue to deepen: BlackRock has filed an application for the "Bitcoin" income-enhancing ETF;Japan’s three major banks—MUFG, Mitsubishi UFJ, and Sumitomo Mitsui—are exploring a joint issuance of a yen-pegged stablecoin; and Strategy has continued to accumulate 1,550 Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 845,256, reinforcing the trend of sustained corporate accumulation.
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