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Bitcoin June’s market pullback caused $8.6 billion in options to become “out-of-the-money,” with 80% of positions nearing expiration—either set to expire worthless or amplify volatility
Svmuu News: Data from the market data platform Deribit shows that as Bitcoin continued to decline in June, a significant imbalance has emerged in the options market set to expire this month, with approximately $8.6 billion in notional value of BTC options currently out-of-the-money (OTM) and at risk of expiring worthless. The data shows that of the approximately $10.6 billion in open interest for options expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in the money (ITM), while the remaining 80% are currently at a loss.Analysts note that this structural imbalance could trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders ahead of expiration, thereby amplifying short-term market volatility. The current “Max Pain” price is approximately $74,000, which is about 14% higher than the current price on Bitcoin of approximately $65,000.Theoretically, this price level implies that the largest number of option contracts will expire worthless, which could exert upward pressure on prices as expiration approaches; however, the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains controversial. Additionally, the call-to-put structure in the options market is relatively balanced, with a put/call ratio of approximately 0.87, indicating growing divergence in market sentiment.Approximately $450 million in open interest is concentrated in $60,000 put options, while $80,000 call options have formed a key resistance level of about $406 million. Analysts believe that as the quarterly expiration approaches, concentrated exercise and hedging adjustments may become major drivers of short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a period of more dramatic directional shifts. (CoinDesk)
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