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Opinion: Prediction markets will not be dominated by a single platform; they will follow the development path of perpetual contracts and evolve into a landscape where multiple platforms coexist.
Svmuu News: CJ Hetherington, co-founder and CEO of the prediction market platform Limitless Labs, stated that he does not believe the prediction market industry will see a single dominant player emerge, drawing a parallel to the offshore perpetual contracts market—where even the leading platforms have never held more than 90% of the market share for an extended period.The core trading volume in derivatives markets comes from market makers and high-frequency traders; these participants typically operate across multiple platforms and exploit price differentials for arbitrage, which structurally limits market concentration. CJ Hetherington cited Binance’s perpetual contracts as an example, noting that its market share once approached 50% but was subsequently eroded by other trading platforms, resulting in a multi-platform landscape. He believes the prediction market will follow a similar path rather than a “winner-takes-all” scenario. Hetherington pointed out that future industry distribution will primarily be conducted through securities firms and futures brokers, with institutions such as Robinhood, Interactive Brokers, and Charles Schwab competing in distribution, while fees and marketing will become the core of competition on the consumer side.However, the U.S. regulatory framework is actually an “advantage rather than an obstacle” for the prediction markets industry, as CFTC oversight helps reduce contract disputes and enhance transparency, while also making the market more suitable for institutional participation. (The Block)
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