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Option market pricing indicates that there is approximately a 40% probability that SpaceX will surpass NVIDIA to become the “world’s number one” by the end of 2028.
Svmuu News: After going public on the Nasdaq with a valuation of approximately $2.6 trillion, SpaceX quickly became the world’s fifth-largest publicly traded company by market capitalization, competing with Amazon for ranking. However, pricing in the options market suggests that it will still take some time for SpaceX to reach the next level of market capitalization. For SpaceX to surpass Apple and Alphabet (both of which have market capitalizations exceeding $4.4 trillion) and rise to second place globally, its stock price would need to rise by about 70% from current levels to $340.Options market pricing indicates that there is approximately a 50% probability that SpaceX will reach that price by July 2028. If SpaceX aims to become the “world’s number one” company by surpassingNVIDIA in market capitalization, the options market estimates the probability of achieving this by June 2028 at approximately 38%, and by the end of 2028 at approximately 41%. Analysts note that option prices reflect the market’s collective expectations for future trajectories; the pricing of high-strike-price options suggests that, despite SpaceX’s strong growth narrative, its rise to become the world’s most valuable company is still viewed as a highly uncertain, long-term event. (CNBC)
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