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Polymarket’s probability that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by June 26” has dropped to 41%, down 16% over the past 24 hours.
According to monitoring by the Svmuu Seer channel, the probability on Polymarket that “Claude Fable 5 will resume service for U.S. customers by June 26” has dropped to 41%, a 16% decline over the past 24 hours. Due to export controls imposed by the U.S. government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. The latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick and have pledged to work more closely with the White House to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful “Mythos” and “Fable” models. Sources familiar with the matter revealed that, during ongoing negotiations regarding corrective measures, Anthropic has pledged to resolve any security issues more swiftly in the future, though there is currently no specific timeline for a complete resolution.Another source stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Public Policy Director Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Donald Trump government officials; however, representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment. The Svmuu Seer channel continues to monitor prediction markets, spotting changes before they are priced in.
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