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Venezuela's oil reserves may be overstated; Rystad Energy believes the best estimate is 60 billion barrels
Venezuela’s proven oil reserves are reportedly around 300 billion barrels (most of which are located in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt), accounting for nearly one-fifth of the world’s total. However, this figure may be exaggerated and is largely meaningless. There is a vast disparity between Venezuela’s potential production and actual output. The country’s daily oil production has plummeted from a peak of over 3 million barrels to less than 1 million barrels, and it has already depleted a significant portion of its reserves. Simply returning to historical production levels in the near future will require immense effort, with repairing dilapidated infrastructure and lifting sanctions being critical challenges. Data from consulting firm Wood Mackenzie indicates that the average breakeven price for new production in the Orinoco Heavy Oil Belt has exceeded $80 per barrel. Therefore, unless prices surge, the estimated reserves may remain purely theoretical. Rystad Energy believes that a more realistic estimate, even under ideal conditions, is likely around 60 billion barrels.
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