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Wintermute: Correlation Between Crypto and U.S. Retail Stock Market Funds Turns Negative; U.S. Stock Market Activity May Become a Leading Indicator
Svmuu News: Wintermute’s latest report indicates that since the end of 2024, the correlation between retail capital flows in the crypto market and the U.S. stock market has shifted from positive to negative. The report notes that while retail capital has been flowing into U.S. stocks at record levels, trading activity in the crypto market has become more cautious overall, with the total market capitalization of altcoins and retail activity both declining in tandem. Data shows that the BTC/NDX volatility ratio has continued to decline, falling below 2 at one point in the first half of 2025. As investment tools such as ETFs mature and cross-platform trading channels are established, it has become easier for capital to shift between crypto assets and traditional stocks. Wintermute believes that retail trading activity in the U.S. stock market is becoming an important leading indicator for observing trends in the crypto market, and investors need to examine changes in capital flows from a multi-asset allocation perspective.
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