Svmuu News: Following the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket quickly launched more than a dozen event contracts related to the situation in Iran, covering topics such as the timing of a ceasefire, the successor to the Supreme Leader, and whether U.S. troops will enter Iran. Since the attacks began, these markets have attracted a cumulative trading volume of approximately $600 million. Among them, the event contract titled “Will Khamenei lose his position as Iran’s Supreme Leader before March 31? "—which settled at 100% after Iranian state television confirmed his death—generated $45 million in trading volume. The top-performing account, "Curseaaaaaaa," profited approximately $757,000 through a "Yes" position, while four other traders earned over six figures. Additionally, the largest single event contract was “When will the U.S. launch an airstrike on Iran?” Since its launch on December 22 of last year, cumulative trading volume has reached $529 million, with trading volume on February 28 alone reaching $89.6 million. Subsequent market trends indicate that traders are generally betting on a phased resolution to the conflict within weeks: the probability of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 2 is only 4%, rising to 15% by March 6, but climbing to 61% by March 31, and 78% by April 30. (CoinDesk)