Svmuu News: The situation has grown increasingly chaotic as Iran launched missiles at U.S. military bases in Gulf cities, airlines suspended flights, and oil tankers carrying oil and other products halted their passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Rong Ren Goh, portfolio manager of the fixed income team at Hanhua Investment, stated that tail risks in the Middle East have increased. The market will reprice, shifting from a geopolitical shock to a regime risk shock and a prolonged conflict—rather than merely retaliatory actions—unless Iran expresses a willingness to negotiate. Analysts believe that a greater risk lies in market complacency. Markets have consistently assumed that the impact of the conflict would be limited and have been reluctant to draw parallels between this conflict and the 1979 Iranian regime change. Barclays analysts noted that history strongly demonstrates that one should not chase rallies when conflict erupts, but rather “sell the fact.” However, the concern is that investors have now become accustomed to this “sell the fact” mindset and may be underestimating the risk of the situation spiraling out of control. It is advised not to buy into any pullbacks immediately. If the market corrects sufficiently—for example, if the S&P 500 falls by more than 10%—a buying opportunity may emerge. But now is not the time. (Jin Shi)