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WSJ: Polymarket bettors do not expect the Iranian regime to collapse anytime soon
Svmuu News: Polymarket traders have reduced their bets on a regime change in Iran. According to data from the crypto prediction market, the probability of the Iranian regime collapsing by March 31 currently stands above 20%, down from approximately 40% on Saturday when Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in an airstrike. Currently, trading volume for contracts on the regime’s collapse has exceeded $14 million. Additionally, contracts with later expiration dates indicate a 42% probability of the Iranian regime collapsing by June 30 and a 50% probability by the end of the year, with trading volumes of $5 million and $7 million, respectively. Recently, Polymarket and its rival Kalshi have sparked controversy over bets involving a U.S. attack on Iran and the overthrow of Ayatollah Khamenei. (WSJ)
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