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UBS: A Century of Data Shows That Economic Fundamentals Are the Core Drivers of the Market
Svmuu News UBS Group analysts noted in a report that data dating back to 1900 indicates that, for financial markets, economic risks have proven to be more significant than geopolitical risks. They stated that, in most cases, investors who are able to “see through” the geopolitical noise tend to perform best.The analysts stated: “Through a simple regression analysis of future global stock returns against a geopolitical threat index, we found no correlation between the two, whether viewed on a monthly or annual basis.”However, geopolitical risks are clearly critical when “extreme events with major economic implications” occur. The analysts cited examples such as World War I, World War II, and the 1973–1974 oil crisis.They noted, however, that such events are “relatively rare,” and historically, economic risks have always been more important to investors. (Jin Shi)
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