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Economists: In addition to the nonfarm payroll data, keep an eye on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual population adjustment tonight
Svmuu News: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release new population data that was delayed due to last year’s 43-day government shutdown. Egelhoff, chief U.S. economist at BNP Paribas, noted that the latest data from the Census Bureau indicates the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been overestimating population growth since late 2024. In the revised January data, the population aged 16 and older is expected to be revised downward by approximately 590,000, the labor force by approximately 370,000, and employment figures from the Household Survey will see similar downward revisions. Using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ experimental series—which smooths past population control and immigration data—and combining it with the latest Census data, U.S. labor force growth is projected to be only 900,000 in 2025, with overall labor force growth in 2026 expected to be well below 500,000. The population control adjustment will only affect the January Household Survey data. This means that month-over-month data for indicators such as household employment, unemployment, and the labor force will not be directly comparable. Mishra, an economist at Bank of America Securities, noted that the good news is that key ratios—such as the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate—are typically affected only minimally. Last year, the population control adjustment raised both ratios by 0.1 percentage points, while this year there is a risk that the new control adjustment could cause both ratios to decline slightly. (Jin Shi)
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