Svmuu News According to CME FedWatch Tool: The probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 0.5%, while the probability of holding rates steady is 99.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by June is 7.8%, the probability of holding rates steady is 91.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 0.5%.