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Wintermute: There is a clear lack of buying interest at current BTC prices, and the market remains highly fragile.
Svmuu News: Wintermute posted that this week’s cryptocurrency decline was driven more by macroeconomic factors than by issues specific to individual coins. The weekend’s drop reflected the market’s reaction to the initial wave of geopolitical fears, while the rebound stemmed from the market’s assessment that Bitcoin had fallen 45% from its all-time high, suggesting that most of the negative news had already been priced in.However, the impact of energy factors has been underestimated. Persistently high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, which contradicts central banks’ hopes of cooling inflation and may further delay U.S. interest rate cuts. Cryptocurrencies are at a disadvantage in this dynamic.Late last week, ETF fund flows reversed, with net inflows exceeding $1 billion, ending five consecutive weeks of outflows.Although outflows so far this year remain as high as approximately $4.5 billion, long-term holders appear to hold relatively small positions, and most of the recent selling has been linked to speculative positions rather than exits by institutional investors.Judging by current trading activity, institutional participation is significantly lower than during the trading range of $85,000 to $95,000 between November of last year and September of this year. At that time, institutional trading was more active, particularly during price declines. Now, however, buying interest is noticeably lacking at current price levels. The market appears highly fragile.
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